One have to concede that, in our developed countries, the financial crisis is the most striking event in 2008. Its implications are far reaching and we still need to grasp how deep they will go. During our last ASTP conference in Valencia, we discussed its impact for Knowledge and Technology Transfer.
Earlier on during the same conference, we also addressed the emergence of an IP exchange market. Preliminary data obtained using “automatic” rating of patents based on a serie of criteria (number and length of claim, citations etc..) seem to give some consistent results with their market value when licensed (see the end of the “Market Forces and IP” presentation that can be found here).
On one hand, more “objective” tools to assess the value of IP are welcome and will be key to the development of an IP exchange market. On the other hand, the inherent limitations to IP valuation, especially at early stage of discoveries, will likely remain a source of uncertainty and lack of transparency.
Are we then on for another “IP market crisis” similar to what we saw in the trading of financial packages which nobody understood at the end of the chain ? – Probably not but the growing role of IP in the economy may put us at risk to see the emergence of IP related bubble. So my wish for 2009 is that 2008 may be remembered long enough to spare us similar crisis in other parts of the finance and business world.